[Event Report] KCS Experts' Roundtable (4): "The War in Ukraine: Prospect for 2026"

On January 20, 2026, the Keio Center for Strategy (KCS) hosted its 4th Experts' Roundtable (ERT). We welcomed Dr. Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), who delivered a lecture titled, "The War in Ukraine: Prospect for 2026."

The ERT brought together researchers, policy experts, Tokyo-based diplomats, and students from Keio University. Dr. Polyakova opened the session by examining the environment surrounding ceasefire negotiations in the Ukraine war, reflecting on the developments in 2025 and highlighting critical issues for 2026. She addressed the wavering stance of the United States between Russia and Ukraine in 2025, as well as major focal points for the year ahead. These included the unviability of Ukraine ceding unoccupied territories, the specificity of U.S. military involvement, Russia's lack of incentive to alter its demands, Russian hybrid attacks against NATO countries, and the outlook on the Greenland crisis that is presently testing the true value of the U.S.-European alliance.

Following the lecture, an active and robust discussion took place between the speaker and the participants. The exchange covered a wide range of topics, including the respective vulnerabilities of Ukraine and Russia, the form of support Ukraine needs most from Western states including Japan, the reactions of the MAGA faction within the United States, the potential for Russia becoming China's junior partner, the critical importance of U.S. engagement in Europe, the likelihood of a direct Russian attack on NATO member states, an analysis of the Trump administration's policy-making process, and the differing U.S. postures toward Russia concerning Ukraine compared to the Greenland issue.