[Event Report] KCS Experts' Roundtable (3): "The Conventional Balance of Terror"

On December 5, 2025, the Keio Center for Strategy (KCS) hosted an Experts' Roundtable (ERT) featuring Dr. James Fearon, Professor of Stanford University as the guest speaker. He delivered a lecture on "The Conventional Balance of Terror."

The ERT, attended by researchers, policy experts, and Tokyo-based diplomats, began with Dr. Fearon's presentation based on his co-authored article, "The Conventional Balance of Terror," published in the May/June 2025 issue of Foreign Affairs. In his presentation, he discussed the issues regarding the contemporary conventional balance of power between the United States and China, past U.S. defense policy initiatives, the need to establish a conventional "triad" of second-strike capabilities across the land, underwater, and air domains, and the necessity for regional nations seeking to deter China to develop their own Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities.

Following the lecture, a lively and robust discussion took place between the speaker and the participants. This exchange covered a wide range of topics, including the role of C4ISR in crisis stability and its implications in the cyber domain, the reasons behind insufficient budget allocations for passive defense measures aimed at enhancing force survivability, and why crisis stability is perceived to be low in the context of U.S.-China conventional forces. The discussion also explored the ideal division of roles and capabilities for U.S. allies, including Japan, as well as the specific functional capability areas that Japan should prioritize developing.